Probability Calibration

SHADOW — shows how honest our confidence is; not changing tiers yet. A model is "calibrated" when its confidence is honest: if it says 60% on a bunch of plays, about 60% should really win. This page grades that from our OWN settled plays (a Brier error score, a plain-English reliability table, and an out-of-sample test of whether correcting the numbers actually helps). It never changes a pick, tier, stake, or your bankroll.